Twilight Continued...from another Point Of View: 'New Moon' Weekend Two Projections, And What That Means For 'Eclipse' And Beyond

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MTV Movies Blog has this really interesting article!

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Cleopatra

Photo Credit : Summit Ent. 2009

Earlier this week, I considered the absence of female-oriented blockbuster fare in today's Hollywood. The staggering weekend success of "New Moon" and the "Twilight" phenomenon overall both point to the value in catering event films to a wider market of viewers. It's a point driven home by the fact that James Cameron's "Titanic" still owns the number one spot on the list of top-grossing domestic box office performers now, more than 12 years after its release.

Clearly, a mix of action and romance works wonders for building a crossover audience. The first "Twilight" film was more than a modest success with its $70 million opening weekend, but "New Moon" doubled that figure. It leaves me wondering what we can expect for the franchise moving forward, and how "New Moon"'s second week numbers might inform our understanding of the possibilities. Not content to wait, I got in touch with Jeff Bock, box office analyst for Exhibitor Relations, to gather some insight from an expert.

"With such a strong opening [like 'New Moon'] you're guaranteed a 50-60% drop [in attendance]," Bock explained. "If we look at what the original 'Twilight' did over the exact same year -- so we have a pretty good comparison -- it dropped 62% [from week one to week two]." Even if "New Moon" attendance drops by half, it will still earn in its second weekend as much as "Twilight" did in its first.

"It's doubtful that ['New Moon'] will be able to [hang onto half of last weekend's viewers]. I think something... along the lines of $50 million is probably more likely," he said. "That is a steep drop, but still, any film that would gross $50 million in its first weekend would be considered a success, much less the second weekend."

No matter how safe or reckless you are with your predictions, it's pretty clear that "New Moon" is in for another impressive weekend performance. If more than 60-65% of viewers are shed, that too is something worth discussing. But looking at the "Twilight" craze, it seems more likely we'll be seeing the opposite, a better-than-expected second weekend.

"You have to look at it in terms of, this is one of the top-tier franchises in Hollywood right now," Bock explained. "And it does have the buzz behind it that studios crave, and obviously ['Twilight'] is outside the studio system. We're still talking about 'New Moon' being leaps and bounds above what 'Twilight' was able to do [in domestic box office performance], which was $200 million."

Bock also points out that domestic figures are just part of the puzzle. "Twilight" seems to have a global appeal, after all. "We're talking about a worldwide phenomenon now, where grosses can get up to $700 million."

You Can Read The Whole Article HERE .